2026 US Senate Forecast
by Jack Whitcomb
Election date: November 3, 2026 (last updated 9/14/2025)
Odds that Republicans retain control:
80%
2026 US Senate Forecast
by Jack Whitcomb
Election date: November 3, 2026 (last updated 9/14/2025)
Odds that Republicans retain control:
80%
Note: development of this election model is ongoing
Jack's forecast
Betting odds
Senate Race Odds by State
50 seats needed for Republican majority (VP acts as tiebreaker)
▪
34 seats not up for election
▪
31 seats not up for election
Safe Democrat (80-100%)
Lean Democrat (60-80%)
Toss-up (40-60%)
Lean Republican (60-80%)
Safe Republican (80-100%)