2026 US Senate Forecast

by Jack Whitcomb

Election date: November 3, 2026 (last updated 9/14/2025)
Odds that Republicans retain control:
80%

2026 US Senate Forecast

by Jack Whitcomb

Election date: November 3, 2026 (last updated 9/14/2025)
Odds that Republicans retain control:
80%
Note: development of this election model is ongoing
Senate Race Odds by State
50 seats needed for Republican majority (VP acts as tiebreaker)
34 seats not up for election
31 seats not up for election
Safe Democrat (80-100%)
Lean Democrat (60-80%)
Toss-up (40-60%)
Lean Republican (60-80%)
Safe Republican (80-100%)