2026 House Forecast

Democrats

chance of majority

Days to election

233

November 3, 2026

Republicans

chance of majority

Model trained on RCP generic ballot averages, 2006–2024. Forecast as of Aug 22, 2026.

Forecasted vote share

Democrat

Republican

Bias-adjusted point forecast · shaded band = 95% CI for final vote shares

Probability of majority

Democrat

Republican

P(win House majority) · Republican = 100 − Democrat

View the polls behind this average

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Rep	Dem	Margin

Data scraped from RealClearPolling.