2026 U.S. House Forecast
Jeffries
Democrats
chance of majority
Days to election
233
November 3, 2026
Republicans
chance of majority
Johnson
Model trained on RCP generic ballot averages, 2006–2024. Forecast as of Jul 13, 2026.
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Forecasted vote share
Democrat
Republican
Bias-adjusted point forecast · shaded band = 95% CI for final vote shares
View the polls behind this average
PollsterDatesSampleRepDem
Data scraped from RealClearPolling.
Probability of majority
Democrat
Republican
P(win House majority) · Republican = 100 − Democrat